Pipeline Puzzle #1 - What Would You Do?

Here's something I'm trying for fun, maybe it will become a new series of videos.

Check out the new video I've posted in the members' area:
http://www.massivewowgold.com/members/?p=2046

I show you a pipeline scenario, I give you the info I have to work with, and I'm asking you to decide: should I buy or not?

I'll give you a day or so to vote here (if you like)... or just to think about how you'd play this setup.

Then I'll post my own solution in a follow-up video (on Friday Oct. 22... Blizzcon opening day!), so you can compare notes with me.

I'm interested in your comments too, so I invite you to post a reply... about the concept of video puzzles like this, or about the specifics of this particular puzzle.

- Jon

In a situation like this, I think you should buy. You are down to one in your inventory, and patch-day is generally on Tuesdays, so you should be able to sell off the two Glyphs before the patch comes out to fix it.

Considering I have like about 10 stacks of these, I must firmly recommending buying at 250g.

Buy and repost for the higher price now, before next Tuesday. I SAID BEFORE NEXT TUESDAY.

-Captjack

[VERY]

Buy and repost for the higher price now, before next Tuesday. I SAID BEFORE NEXT TUESDAY.

-Captjack

My two cents:  Past history is not a strong indicator of future behavior in this circumstance.  This is an "ending concern".

There is a VERY, very high likelihood that this glitch will be repaired during the maintenance of October 26th.  Your decisions on what to do with respect to this item should be governed accordingly.  Get out as high as you can, and in general avoid too much additional exposure.

Under ordinary circumstances, the 100% market width would be a buy signal, especially on this kind of high yield per unit.  However, this is far from ordinary.  Word WILL get around that this is being fixed on the 26th, and people will start making buying decisions based on that information.  If you have additional stock, start rapidly undercutting (not large amounts, but at the highest frequency you can manage) to clear your stock while the profit window is available.

Expect this glyph to be down into the 40g or less range within 7-10 days.  Use that yardstick to govern your decisions.

Knowing that, for the puzzle, I'd treat buying two more at 250g to be a significant gamble.  There are likely far less risky opportunities available now for those 500g, especially given what a large fraction of the total gold on that character 500g is (I'm not assuming that more is available elsewhere, just operating with what I see in that circumstance).  That being said, if you're in a gambling mood, and expect to move three of them in the next two days at high prices (unlikely given the Beancounter snapshot shown), then roll the dice.  The total exposure is probably no more that 400g (you could likely move the two new ones for at least 50g during the down spiral), and the upside potential is about 500g.

The decision would depend on whether you felt lucky or not.  Ordinarily, I like gambling on things like this.  In this scenario, I'd land slightly on the side of not gambling, and use the 500g elsewhere.  So I (just barely) vote no.

It all comes down to greed...

Personally I would watch that glyph and see how quickly it sells, but then your opportunity is gone I guess.

You have sold 2 glyphs for a large amount of gold (where glyphs are concerned) by undercutting the 250 mark already and at any time - not just patch day - this could be fixed.

On the other hand, you have mega amounts of gold anyway so what's 250 to lose? Would you really be kicking yourself over it, I think not!

I actually voted no because I don't think I would take that risk, but I think you will Jon so the answer is... go for it!

Oh, and about the concept of this puzzle series...  brilliant!  This is a wonderfully illustrative concept, and I like the fact that people will be able to see the thinking of other MGB members before the "reveal" of your approach.  Well done, sir!

Those who know me well on these boards already know my answer.  I'm aggressive.  I buy them.
There is a thinking process involved that is probably too long to post.  VekTor covered some of the points in his post.
For me, I learn as well or better from my mistakes.  They are more memorable than my numerous successes.  That said there is a number of things that I consider in this situation:
I've watched since the patch the glyph market as a whole, and as soon as this glyph was identified I watched IT even more closely.  I have seen how many were posted after the patch, have an approximate idea of how many sold at what price.  Then I watched as the weekenders added their volume to the market.  Assuming a few people have glyphs and they log on before Tuesday there may be a few more added at noobishly low autoposting prices (which I grab) or intelligent undercutting.
None of the risk that VekTor pointed out or that I've written here (and more concerns I won't list) make me hesitate in any way.

Here's why:  Because for the strangest reason EVER.  I posted an oxymoron above.  Intelligent undercutting in the glyph market.  On my server this new phenomenon has actually lasted.  People are "feeling the pain" of crafting each glyph with 3 inks.  People are actually THINKING about what they're doing.  I believe that the rush to the bottom will be slow.  No-one will be creating 300 Glyph of Mage Armor and posting them up @ 20g as soon as they can.  If this were the case they would have done it with the glyphs they have @ 160g or 116g that they can currently craft.  They aren't.

So whether you get 500g before next Tuesday I can't predict but I'm confident you'll get a profit of 50g/each regardless of when the fix happens and that's never a bad profit for 2 clicks and a few reposts worth of work.

There's a lot more study that goes into my own server and it may be unfair that I have had discussions with you about prices remaining high on some glyphs.  I may also be guilty of assuming the servers (and your study of yours) is that similar to mine.  Again... a risk I'd take.



Besides... MGBers can make 500g in the time it takes to sneeze.

Well Jon, as I see it the question you raised was based upon very strict guidelines. Current gold on hand, supply on hand, time remaining until glitch fixed, etc.  Taking all of these into consideration I am inclined to say yes buy the 2 glyphs and repost for profit.

Mine is a strong no.  My gold reserves and stock on hand stay low.  My main server is fiercely competitive and the way it goes for me I would not be able to sell these before the fix hits.  The glyph market on that server tanked the first day and has yet to be overly strong, though I must admit, I didn't look at even 20% of all the glyphs out there.   That's a lot of time.  I think a large number of players are doing like myself and either already had the glyphs stockpiled to teach their characters or they are waiting until the prices stabilize.

The weekend is coming and I would buy them.  Undercut the lowest competition and move them before the inevitable fix in Tuesday's patch.  If no fix next Tuesday, then buy another 5-6 if you can and move them before the following Tuesday. If you sell only one a day, you're laughing! 

I haven't posted in ages, but will weigh in on this. I would definitely buy the glyphs at 250, post them for slightly under 499 and probably also cancel and repost the one you have now listed at 800G. Should the price drop dramatically, you can afford to repost them at a lower price. I don't know what you paid for the ones you are selling at 800G, but most likely you will still make a profit on all of them. If not, it will be a good learning experience. I say be bold, take the risk, as the possible returns outweigh the cost of doing nothing.

Just nabbed one for 65g... what a sucker whoever posted that.

No, I would not buy. You may have more money than sense, Jon, but I'll stick to those I 100% know will sell

The one I nabbed for 65g before the lunch sold for 500g while I was eating my sandwich.

I would have gone higher priced but with the fix coming, I figured I'd rather not risk it. Should I have put a higher price?